For the past couple of years the housing discourse for Dublin city has been one of housing shortages and a homeless crisis. The preliminary census figures published yesterday reveal that while the vacancy rates (exc holiday homes) for South Dublin (4%), Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown (5.7%) and Fingal (5.3%) are below a base vacancy level of 6% (in a ‘normal’ market we would expect c.6% of stock to be vacant due to selling/rental gaps, deaths, etc), suggesting that they have housing undersupply, Dublin City Council has a vacancy rate of 8.6% (exc. holiday homes).
In total DCC has 21,781 vacant units (20,844 exc holiday homes). On a base vacancy of 6% (14,544 units) that suggests an oversupply of 6,300.
In other words, there is something pretty odd going on given the homeless rate has been increasing, large numbers are on the housing waiting list, and there’s a widespread belief that the city desperately needs to build housing.
So, what constitutes these 6,300 excess vacant units?
It’s somewhat difficult to know without visiting them and doing an on-the-ground survey, but let’s start with looking at the geography of vacancy in DCC. Map 1 shows the % vacancy in the city minus holiday homes, and Map 2 shows change in the number of vacant units since 2011.
In Map 1, all the areas not shaded pale yellow has a vacancy rate (exc. holiday homes) above 6% base vacancy. Much of the city centre and to the south have rates above 10%, and two EDs have rates above 20% (Mansion House B, Pembroke West B). In Map 2, the blue areas have seen vacancy rates decline between 2011 and 2016, whereas red areas have seen an increase. Interestingly, a number of areas have seen quite large increases in vacancy, especially within the canals near to the city centre, Ballsbridge and Rathmines.
Here’s some speculation as to what constitutes the excess vacancy:
- some unreported airbnb/similar stock;
- some second homes (used during week, but primary residence recorded as somewhere else);
- some investment stock left empty;
- some bedsits not yet converted after change in regulations that made them illegal;
- some inner city obsolescence.
I’d be interested to hear about other possibilities.
Whatever the reason for the vacancy, it appears that this stock is not presently available to the market and therefore there continues to be a shortage of housing in the capital.