As regular readers of this blog will know, some of the contributors to Ireland After NAMA have been involved in debates over levels of housing vacancy in Ireland post the property crash and financial crisis. We now no longer need to rely on models to predict the level of housing vacancy as the preliminary results of the Census 2011 provide a detailed breakdown for each local authority (see Table below – click on the image to enlarge – or Census 2011, Table 7).
The total stock of houses in the country grew by 234,562 (13.25%) between 2006 and 2011, rising from 1,769,613 units to 2,004,175 units. The overall level of housing vacancy, including holiday homes, increased by 10.5% from 266,322 units in 2006 to 294,202 units in 2011. The overall level of vacant housing stock dropped slightly from 15% to 14.7%, but is effectively static, with growth in vacancy being matched proportionally by growth in housing units, which shrank markedly from 2008 onwards.
The much quoted figure in the media of 300,000 vacant units then has then been proven roughly right. Of course, as we have pointed out several times, the real issue is oversupply not overall vacancy. To calculate oversupply we need to subtract the number of holiday homes and also the base vacancy rate (calculated in Ireland as 6% overall stock; in 2011, 120,250) from overall vacancy. The number of holiday homes have not yet been released, but it seems likely that oversupply will be 80-100,000 (it was estimated by the DECLG to be c.122-147,000 at the end of 2009) given growth in households between 2006-2011 and the tail off of construction in recent years.
Housing Vacancy in Ireland 2011, Source Census 2011
To look at the county level, there are ten local authorities where overall vacancy is over 20%. These include Longford (21.8%), Wexford (20.9%), Clare (21.3%), Kerry (26.5%), Leitrim (30.4%), Mayo (24.8%), Roscommon (23%), Sligo (22.2%), Cavan (22.1%), Donegal (28.5%). Only 10 LAs saw a reduction in the number of vacant dwellings, the largest of which was Fingal that saw a decrease by -425 housing units. All other LAs saw a growth in vacancy, nine by over 20%: Carlow (32.2%), Clare (21.2%), Kerry (21.8%), North Tipp (24.9%), Leitrim (24.1%), Roscommon (24%), Cavan (24.7%), Donegal (26.4%), Monaghan (23.3%).
Once we have the holiday home figures we’ll be able to calculate a geography of oversupply, but it is clear from these figures that there is a pronounced pattern of vacancy.
Rob Kitchin
Ireland after NAMA 
June 30, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Hi Rob, so your estimates were indeed in the right ballpark, well done!
Isn’t the reason for the slight drop in vacancy rate from 15% to 14.7% the result of occupants per dwelling dropping from 2.9 to 2.7?
June 30, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Yes, the flipside of vacancy is household numbers. If there are 2,004,175 housing units and 294,202 vacant then the number of households is c.1.71m (this is approximate as the full data will account for people temporary absent from the state and those enumerated elsewhere – in other words the house was empty but is usually occupied thus is not counted as vacant). The growth in households in percentage terms has been running ahead of growth in population for a long time (for example, between 1991 and 2006 pop growth was 20.25% but household growth was 43.21%), so that average household size has consistently shrunk over time. With the multiplication and fracturing of households more units are needed.
June 30, 2011 at 5:59 pm
Sorry, long day and I didn’t express myself too well.
In 2006 the population was 4239848 and the total number of houses was 1769613 and vacancies were 266322. Therefore for each of the 1503291
occupied houses, the average occupancy was 2.82 people.
In 2011 the population was 4581269 and total number of houses was 2004175
and vacancies were 294202. If the same 2.82 per occupied house were to have stayed flat, then the occupied houses would have been 1624346
(4581269/2.82) which would have meant 379828 houses were vacant which would have been a 18.95% vacancy rate, considerably up from 15% in 2006.
So it’s divorce, separation, marrying later and the modern trend towards single occupant life. It’s not because we’re having fewer children.
July 1, 2011 at 9:01 am
[…] follow on from yesterday’s post concerning the initial Census 2011 results with respect to housing vacancy. In that post we […]
July 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Rob,
According to data published on AIRO, these same counties appear to have a history of high levels of vacancy dating back to 1991. Admittedly the current levels of vacancy are exceptional but Leitrim for instance seems to have had a vacancy rate of 18% in 1991. This compared with a national average of 9% in 1991. Today the vacancy rate in Leitrim is 30% versus a national average of 10%. Mayo was likewise 15% in 1991 and 24% in 2011.
Vacancy would appear to be ’embedded’ in these counties albeit, perhaps worsened by the recent insanity.
Can this phenomenon be truly described as ‘oversupply’ or does it represent an abandonment of stock for reasons of migration or poor standard of housing?
Our quantitative analysis of census data tends to implicitly assume that all units are interchangeably the same but they may not be. Likewise, for reasons of family ties and migration, there may be no prospect that many of them will find their way onto a housing market.
So perhaps we need to find a way of thinking about and analysing this phenomenon that is more nuanced and reflective of local social conditions.
July 1, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Richard, I agree we need to try and generate a more nuanced data set that classifies vacant housing units into different types so we can make a better assessment of how it matches up to housing supply and demand. There are a couple of things to note, however. First, there are 60,000+ houses for sale on daft.ie alone at present. I’ve seen some estimates that over 110,000 houses are for sale across all estate agents, so the housing market is very liquid and there is no shortage of stock and choice. Second, these counties have had very high building programs despite the high levels of vacancy in previous censuses that run ahead of population growth fuelled by Section 23 tax breaks. Much of the vacant houses – both estate and one-off – are fairly recent build. Between 2002-2009 the five counties in the Upper Shannon scheme according to ESB data increased their housing stock by 45,053 (49.8%) between 2002 and 2009, from 90,491 to 135,544 dwellings, with 1 in 3 houses built in this period. However you look at it that is going to create genuine oversupply (as reflected in the number of unfinished estates and the amount of stock for sale).
October 13, 2011 at 12:29 pm
[…] is significantly more oversupply in the country than brand new, unfinished developments. The Census 2011 revealed that there are 294,020 vacant units in the country, probably about 80-100,000 units are […]
February 7, 2012 at 8:56 am
[…] an acute shortage of housing units. In fact, most still have an abundance of vacant stock (see this post and this one) and unfinished estates (see this post and this one). There has been practically no […]