As regular readers of this blog will know, some of the contributors to Ireland After NAMA have been involved in debates over levels of housing vacancy in Ireland post the property crash and financial crisis.  We now no longer need to rely on models to predict the level of housing vacancy as the preliminary results of the Census 2011 provide a detailed breakdown for each local authority (see Table below – click on the image to enlarge – or Census 2011, Table 7).

The total stock of houses in the country grew by 234,562 (13.25%) between 2006 and 2011, rising from 1,769,613 units to 2,004,175 units.  The overall level of housing vacancy, including holiday homes, increased by 10.5% from 266,322 units in 2006 to 294,202 units in 2011. The overall level of vacant housing stock dropped slightly from 15% to 14.7%, but is effectively static, with growth in vacancy being matched proportionally by growth in housing units, which shrank markedly from 2008 onwards.

The much quoted figure in the media of 300,000 vacant units then has then been proven roughly right.  Of course, as we have pointed out several times, the real issue is oversupply not overall vacancy.  To calculate oversupply we need to subtract the number of holiday homes and also the base vacancy rate (calculated in Ireland as 6% overall stock; in 2011, 120,250) from overall vacancy.  The number of holiday homes have not yet been released, but it seems likely that oversupply will be 80-100,000 (it was estimated by the DECLG to be c.122-147,000 at the end of 2009) given growth in households between 2006-2011 and the tail off of construction in recent years.

Housing Vacancy in Ireland 2011, Source Census 2011

To look at the county level, there are ten local authorities where overall vacancy is over 20%.  These include Longford (21.8%), Wexford (20.9%), Clare (21.3%), Kerry (26.5%), Leitrim (30.4%), Mayo (24.8%), Roscommon (23%), Sligo (22.2%), Cavan (22.1%), Donegal (28.5%).  Only 10 LAs saw a reduction in the number of vacant dwellings, the largest of which was Fingal that saw a decrease by -425 housing units.  All other LAs saw a growth in vacancy, nine by over 20%: Carlow (32.2%), Clare (21.2%), Kerry (21.8%), North Tipp (24.9%), Leitrim (24.1%), Roscommon (24%), Cavan (24.7%), Donegal (26.4%), Monaghan (23.3%).

Once we have the holiday home figures we’ll be able to calculate a geography of oversupply, but it is clear from these figures that there is a pronounced pattern of vacancy.

Rob Kitchin