*Update* For details on the county breakdown of estates and units as documented in the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government’s ‘unfinished estates’ survey, published 19th Oct 2010, see here and here. For an overview of key statistics on housing vacancy, oversupply, unfinished and ghost estates see here.
** To view an interactive map of all 2846 estates in the DEHLG survey and their characteristics see our mapping module.
On Monday we posted an analysis that revealed that there are 621 ghost estates across the country (where a ghost estate consisted of an estate of ten houses or more house built post-2005 where more than 50 percent of units are either vacant or under-construction). What the analysis reveals is that the phenomenon of ghost estates is endemic to every county in Ireland. Simply detailing the number of estates per county, however, can give a false impression of the issue because it takes no account of the size of the overall population. Whilst Cork County (not including the Cork City area) has 90 ghost estates, it had a population of 361,788 in 2006. Leitrim has 21 estates but a population of 28,950. We have therefore standardised the number of estates by per 1000 head of population.
The data reveals is that counties Leitrim (21 estates), Longford (19) and Roscommon (35) have a particularly high ratio of estates per head of population, suggesting that these estates constitute an oversupply in the market. These are followed by Sligo (24), Cavan (21), Monaghan (18), Carlow (15), Cork County (90), Tipperary North (16), Kilkenny (21), Westmeath (18), and Laois (15) (full list below). Whilst some of these estates are vacant holiday home developments, they nevertheless are presently surplus to demand and are unlikely to be purchased in the short term whilst the market is still trying to find its bottom.
Ghost estates for each county per 1000 population
The presence of these estates in the Irish landscape raises some difficult questions concerning what to do about them. Whilst demand might return relatively quickly in urban areas when the economy picks up, and such estates might be used to deal with the social housing waiting list, it is likely that demand driven by demographic change will be weak in rural counties given that recessions generally lead to rural out-migration. It therefore seems likely that many properties in rural areas will remain empty for quite some time before the market picks back up again. Demographic forecasts would suggest population growth will occur over the long term in Ireland, and one would anticipate population levels to rise in the future in both rural and urban areas. There are questions as to whether the houses built in rural areas, in particular, will be fit for purpose by the time the market returns. Unless a strategy is put in place to maintain them, they will be left to the elements and quickly deteriorate.
For those living on such estates there are clearly social concerns about living with few neighbours and/or on estates that are abandoned construction sites with no street-lighting, pavements, or finished green areas, and in locations that lack amenities, services and public transport. Again, a strategy needs to be put in place for dealing with such estates with respect to making them fit to live in and turning them into thriving communities.
Ghost estates are clearly one of the markers of the present recession and it is now time to start to put in place policies that will start to deal with the phenomena, not least for those people who live on them.
The number of post-2005 ghost estates of 10 or more houses with a vacancy/under-construction rate of 50% or more for each county is as follows: Carlow (15), Cavan (21), Clare (9), Cork City (6), County Cork (90), Donegal (22), Dublin City (24), Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown (10), Fingal (17), Galway City (6), Galway County (20), Kerry (21), Kildare (25), Kilkenny (21), Laoighis (15), Leitrim (21), Limerick City (0), Limerick County (11), Longford (19), Louth (17), Mayo (21), Meath (19), Monaghan (18), Offaly (6), Roscommon (35), Sligo (24), South Dublin (7), Tipperary North (16), Tipperary South (17), Waterford City (6), Waterford County (9), Westmeath (18), Wexford (24), Wicklow (11).
Justin Gleeson and Rob Kitchin
Ireland after NAMA 
January 27, 2010 at 11:10 am
Most of the really ugly spikes correlate to the Rural Renewal scheme which covers Leitrim , South Sligo, North Roscommon, West Longford and West Cavan
Full list of qualifying electoral districts and counties here in appendix 1 . You will find a very strong correlation there.
Click to access it65.pdf
January 27, 2010 at 11:37 am
I thought a Ghost Estate was one where there was nil % occupany (save for ghosts). However the research has defined Ghost Estates as 50% or greater vacancy/under construction. The distinction must be of significance as even a partially occupied estate can’t simply be demolished a la Marbella? If one house out of 100 is occupied, then presumably that owner has rights with respect to road maintenance, lighting, sewage and utilities?
January 27, 2010 at 11:47 am
Whilst the research has value, how can any meaningful projections be made between Ghost Estates and future housing demand? For the following reasons:
1. A Ghost Estate might have 5 houses or 250 houses – there is no distinction based on the number of houses on an estate. This report assumes a Ghost Estate with 250 allocated units and 10 occupied is the same as a Ghost Estate with 5 allocated units and 2 occupied.
2. Ghost Estates are only part of the vacancy picture. There are other estates with greater than 50% occupany but less than 100% occupany. There are vacant single built dwellings.
3. What research underpins the assumption that housing demand will be in percentage terms greater in Dublin (and to a lesser extent Cork, Limerick, Galway) than in more rural locations. Ireland already has one of the most urbanised populations and surely better physical and electronic communication and transport may lead to equal rates of growth or indeed greater rural growth.
4.Indeed with respect to future housing requirements, what account has been taken of negative net migration in year ended April 2009. Birth rates at 15/1000 and death rates at 6/1000 and house size of 2.8 will only produce a requirement of 15,000 dwellings per year and a proportion of that will be addressed by new housing.
January 27, 2010 at 11:53 am
With respect to NAMA which is understood to be considering the first loans as we speak and is expected to part with €17bn in effective public cash in the next few days:
1. Should the apparent revelation that vacant houses are upto three times the number previously assumed in government economic forecasts, should this revelation lead to substantial discounts in residential prices because the actual supply is far greater than had been assumed compared with demand.
2. Indeed given the residential property market dropped by 8.5% in the last quarter of 2009 according to ESRI/PTSB and if the €47bn asset value of NAMA was all residential, would the €47bn be closer now to €43bn?
January 27, 2010 at 11:59 am
The Demolition option
Apparently the IAVI have made a proposal that some of the so-called Ghost Estates be demolished.
Notwithstanding that the NIRSA research assumes that Ghost Estates may be 0-50% occupied already which would presumably prevent demolition, is there any work on the economic impact of demolishing a Ghost Estate?
Presumably there will be substantial costs with levelling buildings, dealing with utilities and disposing of rubble etc.
Once demolished, what use will the land have? If agricultural, it will have a value of €5-20,000 per acre. If development or landbank God knows because there is no present market.
Economically should these assets be sold at €10-30,000 per home – this would make more economic sense than returning the land to agriculture? And indeed if you have 20 homes per acre (45000 sq ft) then would it not make economic sense to sell at €200-600k?
Would the only reason to demolish estates be to “fix” the market, so we have wine lakes, butter mountains and 3-bed, 2-bathroom, semi whats?
January 27, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Holiday homes
There seems to be incredible difficulty with estimating the number of holiday homes in the state. Both NIRSA and DKM have obtained a 49k figure from census. DKM then researched European countries to see their proportion of holiday homes and concluded that 49k units was likely to be on the low side. This conclusion is apparent from NIRSA’s statements also though the background to the conclusion is unclear.
Why is there any surprise that the position in Ireland would be less than elsewhere in Europe. Our weather is not extreme enough to guarantee summer, hot holidays or winter, snow holidays. And I think the assumption that most Irish people will see a big difference between gazing out at the rain from a flat in Coolock is any different to the same rain in Mayo. Is it not the case that those affluent enough to afford holiday homes will consider premium holidays in places where weather is guaranteed and somewhat more exotic than at home?
Therefore if the only reason for the perception that 49k holiday homes is an underestimate is comparison with other European countries, I think that needs to be revisited with better research, it may be accurate.
January 27, 2010 at 1:05 pm
I have been away, so I have not been socialised into the current discussions, but why are we talking about knocking what are presumably perfectly good houses (which will cost money to demolish) rather than, if need be, give them away to people who need somewhere to live? The only reason I can think of is to force house prices up (or stop them falling too fast). It seems to me that we have become obsessed with the logic of economics and lost sight of trying to meet social needs.
January 27, 2010 at 1:14 pm
Notwithstanding the point that counting ghost estates rather per county than empty houses in ghost estates per county (which should be easy enough to do), the fact that the north midlands seems to be top of the table raises interesting prospects. This is traditionally an area of high outmigration in bad times, so it would be nice to think that the oversupply of houses might result in lower house prices and encourage more people to stay. On the downside, if people are tempted to stay because they can get a house, but no jobs follow, then they could end up being trapped in the wrong place if the economy does pick up. It seems to me that some interesting dynamics may be set in train.
January 27, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Thanks for all of this. I should make it clear that we are not using ghost estates to predict future demand. What we are saying is that if future demand does not rise they will remain ghost estates. We are not classing estates of less than 10 houses as ghost estates, though I am sure people living on them might disagree and many developments in rural areas are often small in size (and are also much less likely to end up in NAMA).
You are right that we could have chosen a different rate occupancy vs vacancy/under-construction. For example, I expect that anyone living on an estate that has a 70/30 ratio might also feel they are living on a ghost estate. If we had done that then the number of ghost estates would have risen. We feel that it is entirely reasonable to class an estate that has less than 50 occupancy as a ghost estate. We have also only identified estates which were built post-2005 – so they are recent builds rather than older estates.
I also agree that demolishing houses is the last resort and that we need to think of ways to use them. The Shadowlands project has been trying to think of uses for them – see http://www.shadowland.ie/Shadowland/Home.html
January 27, 2010 at 2:18 pm
” I should make it clear that we are not using ghost estates to predict future demand. ” However you are on record as saying, are you not, that overhang in the Dublin area is sufficient for 3-5 years and that elsewhere is sufficient for 10 years? Is there a disconnect between Ghost Estate research and these observations?
I was concerned at what might be the co-incidence of your alleged statement that rural areas may have enough for upto 10 years of demand with the lifecycle of NAMA (also around 10 years). I know you are a source of advice to the government on housing matters.
With unemployment trending towards 250,000 and a Live Register of 430,000 net migration is likely to continue in negative territory for some time (economic migration is unlikely from other EU countries who with minor exceptions are growing now). Our birth and death rates indicate growth in the 40,000 annual range equal to about 15,000 homes at 2.8/home. With new homes presently at 10,000 per annum and net migration last year at -8,000, there will only be a requirement of about 3,000 homes from the overhang this year and if these numbers are repeated the 300,000 overhang is worth many,many times the 10 year lifespan of NAMA. Is this a fair statement?
January 27, 2010 at 2:25 pm
I would be interested to know if there will be any economic research undertaken with what to do with the Ghost Estates. Apparently a firesale of properties in Cavan last year with prices in the €150k range resulted in queues.
If these estates are priced low enough then surely economic uses will be found, eg nursing or retirement communities, holiday homes (I know I said Ireland wasn’t attractive as say Spain, but if the homes are priced at €10-30k then there would be global demand for our fishing, golf courses, Paddy Fitzgerald faux-image, unspoilt countryside (from a pop density point of view). Global companies could buy up estates for employees ala Silicon Valley. The possibilities are endless if the prices are low enough.
Creating a property landfill (sorry still trying to think of something as clever as butter mountain or wine lake) would surely justifiably make us the laughing stock of the world.
January 27, 2010 at 2:43 pm
NAMA has the first loans in front of it and the rumour is that the first €17bn will be paid out next month. The loans relate to aa wide class of asset including residential property. These first loans might give an indication of how NAMA is valuing residential property and may give a pointer to developers who are apparently hoarding upto 170,000 homes waiting for the market to improve.
It seems to me that there is a circular valuation loop going on here – we have the present value of an average house €213k. NAMA could value residences in this range. However there is a latent supply of 170,000 homes which may be waiting for prices to be stabilised by NAMA before coming on to the market. But once they do come onto the market demand/supply economics must mean that prices will reduce because there will be surplus supply. Which means that NAMA should be valuing less than €213k. Coming from a valuation background myself, I know these type of projected simulated valuations are notoriously difficult. Does NIRSA have any comment about that?
January 27, 2010 at 3:22 pm
Last comment from me,
Regarding the 302,625 vacant homes which appear to be broken down between those advertised for sale and rent and those being held in reserve and perhaps more holiday homes,
Why is it assumed that all homes advertised for sale and rent are vacant? A cursory glance at those for sale on DAFT will show that some are vacant and are perhaps new, others are presently occupied. The same with rental properties, some are presently occupied and will only be available for rent in the future. Therefore why are these all being classed as vacant?
Also how would derelict uninhabitable houses be classified? Are these vacant or occupied or not counted? Examples on DAFT would be rundown properties without roofs or windows that are primarily being sold for the land and the likelihood planning permission will be granted for development as there is an existing structure even if it is 200 years old and hasn’t been lived in since the 1950s?
January 27, 2010 at 4:49 pm
My solution to the house mountain is to give the empties to people who have paid lots of stamp duty. They have been funding the country for years and they will then have the amount of property corresponding to the huge mortgage they have (I do not have a large mortgage).
To take one group, people in suburban flats with 40 year mortgages and massive negative equity would now have a spacious weekend and holiday home in the country. They could sell it or rent it out if they wish. Huge employment too in the local economy from their spending. Huge employment for builders in maintaining the properties. Justice for the people with huge mortgages.
Why not?
If we give the houses to those who have paid lots of stamp duty many people will keep them as holiday homes – taking them off the market. It’s a lot better than knocking them down. Those who have to sell will do so and can use the proceeds to stay in their main residence. Rent to whom? Give Michael O’Leary Dublin and Shannon Airports – problem solved.
Spending would be moved from Barcelona and France and Spain – where people take short breaks and holiday and buy holiday homes – to Ireland.
The houses won’t be maintained if they are left empty for much longer. Many will be knocked down or left unfinished and then knocked down when people aren’t looking. We will be told that all these houses have to go because they are “on flood plains” and the definition of a flood plain will be extended as far as possible. By that logic lots of Britain’s houses would be gratuitously demolished.
As for not being adequately serviced by public transport – you would have to knock down the entire United States (not to mention most of suburban Dublin). And supplying water etc to clusters of houses in rural Ireland would be a lot easier than supplying existing one-off houses.
Not a single finished house or nearly finished house should be knocked down. It is 100% certain that there are 300,000 people on the planet who would pay for a second property in Ireland.
100% certain.
January 28, 2010 at 12:39 am
[…] details of this very interesting survey can be found in several posts on the blog irelandafternama here. It is well worth a look. The economic implications of this result is that property prices are […]
January 28, 2010 at 10:09 am
Have the report writers any idea why there is stasis with the sale of these Ghost Estates? Houses can be sold even if partially complete? Is there any evidence that these Estates are being marketed, and if so where? Or are the developers and banks holding (hoarding) on to them waiting for NAMA to freeze the collapse in prices?
Of course the owners may say, “what’s the point in marketing their properties as the market has collapsed”.
To update an old tale for modern times, a woman at a dinner party offers the host $1m to sleep with her and he accepts. She then withdraws the offer and offers $10 instead. The man is greatly offended and demands to know what kind of man the woman thinks he is. And the woman replies that they’ve established the kind of man he is, they’re just haggling about price.
The same with these Ghost Estates. They’re not going to get going rates, that’s for sure but they’re not valueless either. Why not stick them in no reserve auctions (risky) or invite blind bids starting at €10,000. These homes do have a value, even in the present state of the economy and if projections show that these homes may be on NAMAs books for a hundred years then sell them now for what you can get. It’s not what they cost to build that’s important, it’s whether you can get more for them than the next highest economic value (which is likely to be agricultural land).
And presently unless there’s a secret DAFT.ie for Ghost Estates, they’re just not reaching the market for testing at all.
January 28, 2010 at 5:21 pm
With regard to Timothy’s comments on holiday homes, the reason I think 49k is a low number is the sheer number of these houses in my home area in Kerry.
Lots of these 2nd homes are owned by people from abroad – places where it’s warm a lot anyway and they come to ireland for hillwalking or whatever (I don’t get it either).
Lots more are basically business premises – let out during the tourist season to visitors at premium rates and empty the rest of the year. Many locals make a tidy sum on these.
There are easily a few thousand of these in just my local area of Kerry. Hence why 49k is a tad low.
January 28, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Just saw Prof Rob on Frontline on the RTE player. Did he have a chance to discuss with the Building Federation chap the difference between the 35,000 homes suggested as vacant by them and the 300,000 suggested by NIRSA. It’s a huge difference though as the chap from UCD said, at the 2006 Census there were over 200,000 vacant and that has only increased since then.
It would be helpful to get to the bottom of the difference though.
January 28, 2010 at 7:05 pm
The CIF person is talking about one class of vacant homes – brand new homes. Even then 40K is probably an under-estimation, though we’re not sure by how much. DoEHLG estimated up to 60K at end of Q2 2009 and an additional 10K houses have been built since then. We are looking at vacant houses available for sale, vacant houses available for rent, vacant houses that are not on the market, under-counted second and holiday homes, and abandoned properties. In other words, we are not looking purely at availability of new homes but vacancy more generally (some of which is available to the market now, some of which will become available when prices rise/demand returns, and some of which will not become available). DoEHLG estimate there are 228-253K (+73K holiday homes) vacant homes, of which c.122-147K is in excess of an expected vacant stock of 6% (an adjusted EU average). Goodbody’s think that the vacant stock in the country amounts to between 229K-270K (+73K holiday homes), with between 103K and 144K units in excess of an expected vacant stock of 126K (the 7.3% EU average).
January 29, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Forgetting the Moral Dilemma
Many of these houses are in rural locations that while impractical for younger workers and famillies would be very attractive to returning emigrants. We should actively promote the voluntary repatriation of those older Irish workers primarily in the UK and USA who would now like to return home.
These people gave so much to this country by repatriating money when the country was on its knees. Many of them now live in dire circumstances in UK cities. We could also therefore encourage some local job creation also through the social, medical and retail services necessary to support these returning communities.
January 30, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Re L Curtis’s idea, as one who retired to Ireland from Britain my advice to anyone still there would be DON’T LEAVE!
Rural communities in Ireland do not have the medical and social care support of UK conurbations and public transport is poor.
April 6, 2010 at 8:32 pm
[…] NIRSA research reported on IAN concerning ‘ghost estates‘ (estates of 10 or more houses where 50% are vacant or underconstruction) puts the number of […]
April 13, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Maybe a new ‘Seed’ Bank should be licensed. A Bank targeted at 16 year olds and upwards.
A Bank that ONLY gives ONE MORTGAGE PER PERSON/COUPLE, per lifetime, (and this could be written into it’s Articles of Association), i.e. that does NOT give loans for second houses/holiday homes/buy-to-let properties (as, strictly speaking, especially the latter, are commercial loans).
At least it might help the poorer younger people to by-pass the snare of rented accomm.
April 30, 2010 at 1:09 pm
[…] interesting to see a report this morning on BBC Breakfast concerning Ireland’s so called “ghost estates”. The Celtic Tiger period saw a rapid expansion in house building in Ireland, at locations all […]
July 28, 2010 at 5:38 pm
How exactly was this information gathered and can it be passed to Planning Authorities and or NAMA? The Senior Planner in Leitrim County Council gave the Irish Planning Institute Annual Conference a presentation in relation to Ghost Estates in Leitrim and it was based on actual evidence gathered by the authority going door to door and the actual number was far less than presented here.
In relation to uses for Ghost Estates, many have suggested that they should be used for social an affordable housing. However, if we are to actually avoid the Ballymuns and Moyross’ situations of this world, this is not a viable answer. We need to create socially integrated communities and have estates with a range of household types for a variety of people of different ages and abilities.
In order to determine an actual use for these ghost estates a thorough audit of the properties is required on the basis of location, community facilities, public transport and road access, type of house, quality of build, etc. Only once this is done can it be decided what use to actual make of them. Some of course will have to be demolished and some can be put to the market and pepper potted with social and affordable and in particular key worker accommodation (nurses, teachers, etc).
October 4, 2010 at 6:52 am
[…] (who seems to speak with confidence), the report “will show” 2700 ghost estates (up from 600-odd roughly estimated by Professor Kitchin and others) and less than 100,000 vacant dwellings (down from […]
October 16, 2010 at 2:56 pm
It seems that every county has its share of ghost estates and what saddens me from a Cavan perspective is how many of these seem to be located in centres which once were healthy commercial towns. Take Ballyconnell for instance, the home of the Quinn group of companies once a quaint rural border town and proud winner of the national tidy towns competition. The pride that was once in the town is now replaced by fear of losing its anchor tenant. Unusual for a small town and certainly for county Cavan to see appartment blocks with windows shuttered and half completed housing estates that will probably never see completion and occupancy. One wonders therefore if NAMA is simply being used by developers and county councils as a toxic waste dumping ground. It is a greater pity that NAMA wouldn’t take the county councillors and cowboy developers along with it.
December 3, 2010 at 12:33 am
im an irish man living in uk. if anybody wants to sell me a cheap ghost house iv got 30 k waiting. 30 k is better than nothing
January 22, 2011 at 9:44 pm
[…] glance, this does seem to make a lot of simplistic logic, particularly in Galway. According to a survey carried out last year, Galway City and County has some of the highest numbers of ghost estates in […]
November 20, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Hi, I used a link suggested by you in my blog http://an-seomra-comhra.blogspot.ie/ It was a map of ghost estates. Good work with the blog by the way.
March 22, 2013 at 5:09 pm
[…] Typical goal-post moving by FG/LP. This link cites just 19 ghost estates as at 2010 in Meath Ghost estates per county | Ireland after NAMA Can you provide a link to your list of 84? Sign in or Register Now to […]