The DEHLG have announced their unfinished estates survey in the last hour. We’re presently looking over the data and preparing some maps which we’ll hopefully post later on. In the meantime we thought it would be useful to detail some key statistics relating to the housing crisis in Ireland given that there has been much confusion to date with different data often being conflated. In the absence of a census in the last year, all the figures, with the exception of the unfinished estates, are estimates using models.
1) Total housing stock – the total number of residential units in the country (which includes obsolete property, holiday homes and investment properties)
At end of 2009 – 1.96m units (DEHLG, estimate)
2) Total number of households – the total number of occupied units in the country
At end of 2009 – 1.63m (CSO, estimate)
3) Vacancy, including holiday homes – an estimate of the total number vacant units in the country, including holiday homes calculating using 2006 census data and projected household growth/new mortgage data
3 main estimates for up to 2009: DKM/DEHLG: 301,682-326,685; NIRSA: 338,031; UCD: 345,116
4) Vacancy, excluding holiday homes – an estimate of the total number of vacant units in the country, excluding holiday homes
3 main estimates for up to 2009: DKM/DEHLG: 228,206-253,209; NIRSA: 252,029; UCD: 280,596
5) Potential oversupply – the number of units above an expected base vacancy rate (a certain proportion of housing stock will always be empty in any housing market); the number of units in excess of this base vacancy rate are considered to be an oversupply in the present market
3 main estimates for up to 2009: DKM/DEHLG 122,029-147,032 (using a 6% base rate); NIRSA 120,248 (using a 6% base rate); UCD: 171,178 (using a 5% base rate)
6) Unsold houses – total number of unsold, brand new units in the country (this along with secondhand houses – c.50,000 – constitute the present the housing market)
2 main estimates: Construction Industry Federation (Nov 2009) 35,000 to 40,000; DEHLG: 33,226 (23,250 complete, 9,976 nearly complete; +9,854 where construction has started)
7) Unfinished estates – the number of unfinished estates in the country, where an unfinished estate is defined as an estate that has 2 or more houses where development and services have not been completed and estates completed from 2007 onwards where 10% or more of units are vacant
Number of estates as of mid-2010: 2,846 (DEHLG); 429 active
Number of units in these estates: 121,248
Number occupied: 78,195
Planning permission for an additional: 58,025
8 ) Ghost estates – a particular class of unfinished estate consisting of 10 or more units, where 50% or more of units are vacant or under-construction, built from 2005 onwards
Number of estates at end of 2009: 620 (NIRSA etimate)
Number of units in these estates at the end of 2009: 19,262 units (including 11,670 vacant; 3,823 under-construction)
Rob Kitchin and Justin Gleeson
Ireland after NAMA 
October 21, 2010 at 2:36 pm
I dread to have to say this in the context of recent mis-estimates in other economic data, but I fear that these survey data constitute a gross underestimate of the numbers of houses permitted and unbuilt.
In one Administrative area where less than 100 houses remain unbuilt according to the survey, at least ten further permissions can be identified, incorporating more than 2,000 dwellings. And this without breaking a sweat! All of these permissions are dated post-2005 and are located on zoned, serviced lands and are capable of being built.
Some of those included in the survey do not include more recent supplementary and additional permissions further extending the numbers permitted.
Although I do not believe in Ghosts, neither can I accept exorcism by whistling past the graveyard.
October 21, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Richard, as I understand the permissions information. It is not the total number of permissions open in a county, but the number of permissions on the 2,846 identified unfinished estates. I hope that makes sense.
October 21, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Cuffes number is evidently a complete whitewash. I bet Finneran ran this count not Cuffe.
There are 33,000 empty homes in Galway alone if one includes holiday homes what do tend to be empty in October 🙂
October 21, 2010 at 5:38 pm
The DEHLG survey is not trying to estimate overall vacancy, but unfinished estates – which represent a particular problem. To quote above – an “unfinished estate is defined as estate has 2 or more houses where development and services has not been completed and estates completed from 2007 onwards where 10% or more of units are vacant”. In that context I think the numbers are accurate.
October 23, 2010 at 8:36 am
[…] *Update* For details on the county breakdown of estates and units as documented in the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government’s ‘unfinished estates’ survey, published 19th Oct 2010, see here and here. For an overview of key statistics on housing vacancy, oversupply, unfinished and ghost estates see here. […]
October 26, 2010 at 6:02 am
[…] vacant houses in Ireland, nor are they a measure of oversupply of houses in Ireland. For example, according to Rob Kitchin and Justin Gleeson on Ireland After NAMA, the latest figures from DoE do not contradict the DoE/DKM estimates that there are up to 250,000 […]
October 26, 2010 at 8:19 am
[…] and UCD 345,116 (so each study had pretty good alignment with the latest data – see our key housing statistics post, which also gives links to all data). We need to take out holiday homes, as these properties are […]
November 18, 2010 at 11:13 am
[…] Where we agree is that there is a lot of misinformation in the media about vacancy and unfinished estates, with the media conflating both oversupply and overall vacancy with unsold units. We have posted on this several times – see our key housing statistics post. […]
January 12, 2011 at 8:49 am
[…] is presently running a 21% vacancy rate (see here and here). The residential vacancy rate is estimated to be c. 15%. And whilst the additions to stock are small and most legacy projects and one-off housing, […]
January 18, 2011 at 3:40 pm
[…] houses), despite the well known problems of oversupply and overhang in the housing market (see our key housing statistics). A few months ago, the Indo also reported (also see here) on the land zoning bonanza that has […]
February 2, 2011 at 4:03 pm
[…] calculates that oversupply (122-147K) is significantly higher than overhang (43K) – see our key housing stats post. As we have argued at length elsewhere to try to ignore the issue of oversupply and only […]