The latest DEHLG housing survey has revealed that there are 2,846 estates where part of the development remains unfinished or vacant. These estates consist of 78,196 dwellings that are completed and occupied, 23,250 dwellings that are complete and vacant, 9,976 dwellings that are near complete, and a further 9,854 dwellings that are at various stages of construction activity.
The survey has also revealed that there are an additional number of dwellings that have received planning permission for development, but where no initial construction has yet begun. The total number of planned and approved additional units is approximately 58,025. Thankfully, these did not proceed to development or the extent of the housing crisis would have been worse. According to the DEHLG these permissions do not pose any immediate construction or site specific difficulties as they are unlikely to proceed given the present market and access to credit.
The counties with the largest number of undeveloped planning permissions in existing unfinished estates are Fingal (9,502), Cork County (6,516), Meath (3,456), Dublin City (3,263) (Figure 1). It would be interesting to know how many of there are apartments, 3 bed semi-ds, etc. Given their proximity to Dublin and Cork, it is likely that as estates are finished off and occupied over time, these permissions may be taken up, though developers might push strongly for a redesignation of the permission – say trying to move from high density apartments to lower density 3/4 bed semi-detached. Such redesignation may well cause issues where estates are near to key infrastructure, such as the luas and rail lines, which were designed to increase density and the numbers within walking distance of stations.
If we normalise the permissions with respect to the number of existing households (units per 1000 households in 2006) we see a different picture emerge with Fingal, Laois, Longord and Cavan having the highest levels of excess permissions (Figure 2). Fingal presently has 2,866 units either completed but vacant, near complete, or underconstruction. Between 1996-2006 the number of households in Fingal grew by, on average, 3,280 per annum. If households were still growing at that rate, the unfinished estate units would last 10.5 months. Of course, there is other vacant stock in the local authority, although it is relatively small, and the growth in households is not increasing at the same rate as 96-06. Therefore the stock should last at least 12-24 months before present excess planning permissions will start to be taken up. As for Laois, Longford and Cavan, given the present levels of oversupply it is highly unlikely that such permissions will be taken up any time soon.
Figure 1: Uncommenced Units
Figure 2: Uncommenced Units per 1000 households
Ireland after NAMA 
October 23, 2010 at 11:30 am
I have to admire your optimism!
No way will these permissions be used. They will lapse, 5 years is all they will last, right? Then the whole PP circle with all the options for brown paper bags, begins again.
But that may be in two decades or so? Unless Ireland invites in 100,000 refugees?
October 23, 2010 at 9:29 pm
I’ll concede 12-24 months for Fingal is optimistic, especially given issues of accessing credit and also possibly housing type (more below), but there is a trickle into estates as an article in The Wall Street Journal notes (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703735804575535513394082450.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews). Should have probably dropped the 12 and just gone for ‘at least 24). It does seem that in and around Dublin 3 bed semis and family homes in general are in relative short supply. The issue is apartments. The survey data released does not reveal the housing form of the unoccupied and underconstruction parts of Fingal’s unfinished estates, but 59% of all units (constructed, underconstruction and planned) are apartments, which might extend the recovery. The DEHLG have indicated that they may redo their survey again in 2011, in which case we’ll get an idea as to how estates are faring.
October 23, 2010 at 7:50 pm
This oversupply of property completed and uncompleted will last 10 years minimum. It is going to cost serious money to knock 30% of them down and remediate land back into agricultural use. Maybe, eventually, this land might be good enough to grow some willow for he new power and heat plant in Offaly that is going to create 60 jobs? People, are still leaving the country in droves, handing back keys to banks and landlords. 500,000 unemployed people will not be noted for their ability to raise mortgages. Sons and daughters abroad will not add to the economy here. BTL mortgages will explode into full delinquency the first time the ECB raise interest rates
It is going to take years to complete and finish developments and then they will have to be sold at fire sale prices. Only good thing I can see about the extent of oversupply is that builders will be prevented from building anything speculatively.
@ Pat Donnelly
We can invite in 100,000 refugees, I am sure our FF/GP think tank have thought about that but they cannot eat the scenery and will have to drive miles and miles to sign on.
October 23, 2010 at 9:37 pm
I do think there is a geography to this and some areas will come back more quickly than others depending on the extent of local oversupply, location, demographics, local labour markets and the wider economy. There is no doubt though that the slump is going to last a while in all local housing markets for a while, and a lot longer in some locales.
October 24, 2010 at 6:42 pm
No recovery in the economy means no recovery for property prices and no recovery for rents, both as we know are still on a downward trajectory. Consequently, the prognosis for these estates and the oversupply is extremely poor. I spoke to someone doing NAMA valuations over the weekend and it is absolutely stinking to high heaven what is going on. Experts scrambling over each other (3 estimates per loan) working until 10 o’clock each night to skim the gravy before Joe Public wakes up to the scale of the robbery.
The economic austerity peddled by the jibbering, political classes driving us headlong into the arms of the IMF quicker than you can say abracadabra.
Here is an analogy, a teenager insists he know how things “must be done” in his own world there is only “one game in town” etc. He moves out, into a flat, signs a contract, then looses his job! Cannot even afford enough money to eat. This is Ireland shortly. Solution? Parents come in and lend him/her the money to pay his rent and give him enough money so that he does not go hungary! Guess who is going to be calling the shots, the parents or the teenager? I don’t see the IMF being too concerned about finishing off Irelands ghost estates. NAMA is the economic madness that has robbed us of the stimulus we needed for our economy. Lenihan and the likes of Frank Fahy told us that we were going to have one of the cheapest bailout in the world. Now we have the highest debt to GDP ratio in Europe and we are locked out of bond markets. That is not necessary a bad thing. Especially, if all we are going to do with the money is spend it on current consumption and end up paying interest on it for the next 10 years.
I hear a lot about people’s “savings” that can be “tapped” . There might be as much as 90bn in “savings” accounts, we are told. Interesting. I’am sure there is, but what is not being talked about is the 1.3 trillion in private debt at the other side of personal balance sheets. If I have a 100,000 in my “savings” but owe 100,000 how rich am I? What do I do if the bank calls in the loan?
There was an algorithm for dealing with the economic problems and that algorithm was destroyed by Lenihan on Sept 29th 2008. There are macro economic and international strategies for getting out of this. Is it going to happen? Are we honest enough? Mature enough or selfless enough? Dare I say it even patriotic enough?
October 26, 2010 at 3:54 pm
[…] This breakdown is based on all units (179,230) so also includes units that have been granted planning permissions but not yet commenced (58,025). The current summary data available through DEHLG will not allow a further breakdown of […]