One of the headlines of the Irish Times today (29 September 2010) reads: “Ireland will not need emergency funding, says EU commissioner.” That’s according to Olli Rehn, European Economics commissioner, who does not foresee the need for the Irish government to seek emergency financial aid from supranational institutions such as the EU or the IMF to rebuild the international investors’ confidence in the country. An optimism shared by Taoiseach Brian Cowen who also dismissed the idea yesterday that Ireland will need to resort to external financial help to sort out its economy. So Ireland does not appear in such a bad situation from the EU standpoint, compared to, say, Greece or Spain, for example.
That may not be the case for long if we are to judge by another headline of today’s Irish Times (ironically placed right next to the other one cited above on the printed edition – see on the right-hand side) which warns that “Anglo Irish ‘worst case’ bill may top €30bn.” I thought the ‘worst case’ scenario was a €20bn bill, or maybe it was €25bn? My confusion probably comes from the fact this figure (and others) keeps changing, and seems to be always on the rise. So can we take that €30bn seriously? In the same Irish Times article, financial correspondent Simon Carswell points out that “this will meet minimum capital rules up to the end of 2012 but the banks may need more capital beyond this date should losses rise.” How and where would we find more capitalat that point? More bonds? But how can we afford issuing more government bonds when interest rates on 10-year bonds have already risen close to 7%? So, I wonder, can we completely dismiss the idea that Ireland may need to seek help from the EU and/or the IMF at some point?
Delphine Ancien
September 29, 2010 at 12:04 pm
I’m reminded of a quote from ‘Yes, Minister’ (I think), where Sir Humphrey comments: “Never believe anything until it’s been officially denied.” And watching the Prime Time special on the banks last night makes it clear that one should be extremely sceptical of anything this government says! (Liquidity problem … banks well-capitalised … cheapest bank rescue plan … lending to small businesses … Anglo’ll only cost E4 billion … et cetera)
September 29, 2010 at 12:08 pm
It is just part of the “drive down all the currencies that really have no backing but credit”….. while commodity currencies go up!
This helps in recessions to enable payback of debt in depreciated, inflated currency. This is a depression. Currency falling now is a weakness, not a strength!
September 29, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Here, from Spain, the point of view is diferent. Our politician think that the problems will be in Ireland and Greece, not in Spain. I’m reading this interesting blog and I’m trying to understand your problems and how you think to go out from this crisis. I appreciate your comments and your point of view. Thanks
September 29, 2010 at 6:13 pm
Good post.
FYI The Indo reported in November 09 that Lenihan said Anglo wouldn’t cost country more than €4bn more (at that time). Oh.
November 5, 2010 at 10:41 am
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