The NIRSA Working Paper 59 – A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland – was published this afternoon. It will be discussed on Prime Time tonight at 9.30pm. Discussed on Morning Ireland earlier today.
July 29, 2010
A Haunted Landscape
Posted by irelandafternama under News stories | Tags: NIRSA, planning |[11] Comments
Ireland after NAMA 
July 29, 2010 at 6:15 pm
I hate to say this lads but those figures on the empties were in the public domain 3 years ago on thepropertypin. Here.
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3088&p=23930&hilit=empties+330k#p23930
July 29, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Fair play that this was being raised then, but what is in the NIRSA paper is much more detailed and at the county level and includes a calculation that tries to separate vacancy from oversupply and take into account obsolescence, holiday home and base vacancy rates. Plus a lot of contextual analysis and explanation. There is no claim to be first (indeed propertypin is referenced in the text) or to try and score points, but rather an attempt to try and widen out and deepen the discussion and analysis.
July 29, 2010 at 6:39 pm
I know, that spreadsheet linked to your report is a rather good resource I must say.
Well done.
July 29, 2010 at 6:45 pm
Well done with the report – it is as others have said “hard hitting”.
Have you any comment on the article in the Irish Times (link at bottom) which says “House prices are also likely to fall further, with the average home expected to drop in value by as much as 60 per cent from the peak in February 2007, it [your report] found.” As far as I can see you make reference to projections by others on page 15 “Many economic commentators are now predicting that house prices will fall 40-60% from peak values (e.g., M. Kelly 2009; Whelan 2010a)” and on page 58 “Given the extent of the oversupply, and the fact that much of it is not necessarily optimally located for future projected demand, house prices are likely to remain depressed for some time. Indeed, most economic commentators are now predicting that house prices will continue to fall,with most suggesting that prices will drop on average by 40-60% from their peak (M.Kelly 2007; Finfacts 2009; Whelan 2010a).”
Are you actually finding, based on your work, that prices may drop by up to 60% from peak?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0729/breaking37.html
July 29, 2010 at 7:48 pm
We’re not making a prediction re. house price drops – as you note we simply reference others who predict a 40-60% drop as an indication as to where some economists think it will fall to. Since we’re at -35% so far according to PTSB/ESRI, and the rate is higher in Dublin, that range would seem about right. Dublin seems to have fallen more rapidly and the rest of the country is in a sticky decline.
July 29, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Have you any comment on the latest Eurostat population estimate for Ireland (link below) which showed that population was estimated to have grown by 6,000 in 2009 – the lowest 12-month growth since 1991?
The ESRI has recently projected various scenarios for the State but they are tending to estimate largescale emigration for some years to come.
Ireland 1994 – 2008 had net inward migration (immigration – emigration) of 450k (CSO). What would happen if the next decade saw a reciprocal outflow?
Why are you still using population growth for 1996-2006 as a basis for projecting forward? Isn’t there a strong risk you will overestimate population, and consequently housing demand and more generally infrastructure?
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/10/110&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
July 29, 2010 at 9:44 pm
The pity of all this is that no one would listen to An Taisce, who predicted this level of oversupply would happen many years ago.
July 30, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Looking forward to getting my teeth into this. Thanks
July 31, 2010 at 8:16 pm
I must say the response to the report from Ciaran Cuffe on Prime Time was nothing short of pathetic. The Greens seem to have finally morphed into FF.
August 11, 2010 at 10:45 am
[…] | Tags: planning failure, Strategic Spatial Planning, territorial politics | Leave a Comment A Haunted Landscape, the recent report on the housing crisis in Ireland published by NIRSA, identifies a […]
May 10, 2011 at 8:17 am
[…] the introduction of the new phenomenon of ‘ghost estates’ to every county in the Republic (“A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland.” Kitchin et al., […]