Immigrants are leaving Ireland in their thousands, the Irish Independent reported on Christmas Eve.
The basis for this claim? A recent report by the CSO on the number of active PPS numbers. The CSO found that over 960,000 PPS numbers were issued to foreign nationals aged over 15 in the period from 2003 to 2008. Of these, just over 425,000 were recorded as active in 2008. The obvious conclusion, at least according to the Irish Independent, was of an exodus of recent migrants.
Yet, if we examine the CSO report in more detail, these conclusions are not quite so obvious. First, the report is based on active PPS numbers, which means a person is in employment or has some engagement with the social welfare system. There are a number of reasons why someone might be living in Ireland yet not have an active PPS number, for example full time students, full time home makers or retired people in receipt of pensions from other countries. In other words, an inactive PPS number does not mean that its holder has left Ireland. Second, PPS numbers may well have been issued to people who travelled to Ireland for a short period only, such as students who came to Ireland to work during summer holidays. The seasonal peaks in the issuing of PPS numbers since 2003, in particular the summer peak and the winter drop-off, suggest that such seasonal migration may well have been more prevalent than was realized (see figures for Polish nationals below, extracted from the Department of Social and Family Affairs).
Reports on the exodus of recent immigrants from Ireland serve an important political purpose. The Irish government has long acted under the illusion of temporary immigrants, motivated solely by economic considerations. When work dries up, the assumption is that these economic migrants will leave the country. This illusion negates the need for any long-term planning around migration or integration. Yet, as the CSO report ultimately shows, reports of an immigrant exodus from Ireland are premature. Instead, many recent immigrants continue to stay in Ireland – trapped, perhaps, in negative equity in the country’s ghost estates. We need to realize that tales of their mass departure are just that – empty tales, with no basis in fact.
Mary Gilmartin
Ireland after NAMA 
January 20, 2010 at 9:01 am
I disagree with the assertion offered above that certain classes of persons (full time students, full time home makers or retired people in receipt of pensions from other countries) would not have PPS numbers.
Students are required to supply PPS numbers in connection with registration at third-level institutions; a student would have to have a PPS number to open a bank account; and many students (even those classed as “full time”) are working to some extent.
Full-time home makers are often, at the very least, bill payers for the family home. The bank accounts are in their names and they must supply PPS numbers for those accounts.
Retired persons from other countries will have PPS numbers on two accounts: First, in order to avail of certain benefits for OAPs (e.g., free travel); second, in order to open bank accounts into which their retirement funds are paid by the national retirement schemes that are supporting them.
The CSO would know this and may have it right after all.
January 20, 2010 at 9:16 am
John, I agree that these groups of people most likely have PPS numbers for the reasons you’ve highlighted. The question is whether or not they are active in a particular year. According to the CSO, ‘active’ means they were in employment or engaging with the social welfare system during the year. Using a bank account or registering for university does not count as active, in this definition. Your point about the Free Travel Scheme is relevant – do you know if the PPS number is recorded each time the pass is used, or is it only used for the initial application?
January 20, 2010 at 10:15 am
Mary,
The Free Travel Scheme uses the PPS number only for the initial application.
As respects students, the PPS number is queried (and thus, “active”) at least once each year in which the student registers in a third-level institution. If the student is availing of a financial support scheme from a local council, that scheme would query the PPS number a second time (independent of the educational institution).
January 20, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Just to add, Mary, you also need to use your PPS number to claim child benefit. I’m not sure what proportion of the people you are discussing would fall under that heading.
January 20, 2010 at 1:23 pm
@John – querying a student’s PPS number does not count as activity in the CSO definition.
@Jane – the CSO lists a number of social welfare actitivies, both once-off and ongoing. It’s unclear whether they have counted a child benefit claim as a once-off or ongoing activity.
More broadly, I think it’s important to acknowledge that there are some people living in Ireland with inactive PPS numbers. An inactive PPS number does not necessarily mean a person has left Ireland permanently.
January 20, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Yes, Mary, I think the broad point is well taken.
January 20, 2010 at 4:16 pm
I’m not entirely sure that migrant exodus is entirely a myth, but there certainly seems to be a lot of them “on the move” whether it is to different jobs, accomodation, the dole queue or somewhere other than Ireland.
I live in a heavily overcrowded Victorian conversion for the last 3 years, which is basically a 5 bedroomed house converted into 12 flats – yes, hall ways, doorways and cupboards have become flats. Most of these were occupied by eastern bloc migrant workers, with the largest exception being single female Irish or western European (i.e. French) women. Out of about 12 flats, 8 were occupied by eastern bloc couples, 3 by single working women (as above), and one bedsit was occupied by an Irish male long-term welfare recipient. (Actually “occupied” may be inaccurate as he rarely seems to be around and may have an unofficial residence elsewhere, but welfare pay his rent). For the first couple of years there was little moving in/moving out, but suddently, there has been a mass turnaround. The main groups leaving do seem to be the eastern bloc workers, where they are going I don’t know, but what to me is significant is that all the “replacement” tenants bar one are now Irish singles or couples on rent allowance.
Whether that is due to the landlord not reducing rents for existing tenants, or whether there has been a massive change in tenant demographics, is unclear, but certainly there are fewer Poles and Lithuanians around an area once saturated with them.
September 21, 2010 at 12:48 pm
[…] with nationalities other than Irish has decreased, thus casting doubt on the idea of an ‘immigrant exodus‘. Second is the extent to which emigration is gendered: men – particularly with Irish […]