The last couple of days in the media have seen the usual retrospective look back at the year just gone and the forecasting of predictions of the year to come. Neither have made particularly pleasurable analysis. 2009 was the year that Ireland got its just desserts for the follies of the government, banks and property developers (and it has to be said, the general population who were also caught up in the credit party). 2010 is going to be more of the same, with the situation getting worse before it gets better.
Rather than summarise various different predictions, I thought I’d highlight one set from outside the mainstream media by economist Ronan Lyons which seems relatively realistic and are focused on 12 established monitoring measures. His predictions for 2010 are:
- Number employed, i.e. full-time and part-time (not under-employed): 1.825m (compared to 1.925m in 2009 and 1.875m 2000-2007)
- Redundancies: 60,000 (compared to 80,000 in 2009 and 20,000 on average, 2000-2007)
- Net migration: -50,000 (compared to -7,800 in 2009 and +45,000, 2000-2007)
- Unemployment: 14% (compared to 12% in 2009 and 4.4%, 2000-2007)
- GDP growth: 0% (compared to -8% in 2009 and an average of 6%, 2000-2007)
- GNP growth: -2% (compared to -11% in 2009 and an average of 5.4%, 2000-2007)
- Ratio of GNP per capita in Ireland to EU15: -8.2% (compared to -3.7% in 2009 and 7%, 2000-2007)
- Consumer price inflation: 1% (compared to -5.5% in 2009 and 4%, 2000-2007)
- House price inflation: -15% (compared to -15% in 2009 and 9.4%, 2000-2007)
- Rental inflation: -10% (compared to -16% in 2009 and 4.2%, 2000-2007)
- House completions: 15,000 (compared to 25,000 in 2009 and 70,000, 2000-2007)
- Car registrations: 100,000 (compared to 125,000 in 2009 and 170,000, 2000-2007)
From my perspective as a geographer, it would be interesting to consider the variations in these predicted figures for different parts of the country given the state of regional economies and their ability to weather the drivers of the recession. As we’ve noted on IAN there are significant differences in how the recession is playing out across the state at local and regional scales (for example, with respect to the live register, public sector pay, house prices and office rents, residential vacancy rates, cross-border shopping, County Leitrim). It looks like 2010 is going to be another year of significant economic and social re-adjustment, accompanied by some difficult political decisions.
Rob Kitchin
Ireland after NAMA 
January 1, 2010 at 4:59 am
For 2010 I would be even less optimistic as capital is destroyed and even governments find they are not able to print money. The deflationary procyclical budget is typical but will aggravate the deflationary forces now operating. Tax increases will be tried next.
NAMA means that billions will leave Ireland every year for the next two or three decades. Interest at first, then repayments! Wow, deflation experiment anyone?
Sell your assets now!
Australia is cutting down on migration and the party that is pro migration is also backing this!
Indonesia looks nice ….. a few hundred thousand Euro goes a long way there. Remember that everything in the msm is a lie!
January 1, 2010 at 5:03 am
http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/property-investment/poor-house-ii.html
Notice the date!!!!! I was reading blogs like this at the time. Why did msm nor economists in the public eye notice what was going on?
They are paid not to disturb the wage slaves with the truth! Expect no truth in Ireland except from Morgan Kelly. Too late now! I told friends in Ireland to sell up and buy back in ten years at half price. I think it will be in twenty years given what has happened in Japan and Ireland since.
January 3, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Seems to me that the predictions listed are fairly realistic. As regards the people that invested heavily during the boom, will many of these (effectively bankrupt) form much of a drag on the economy, or will they continue to, somehow, drive around in luxury cars and excape scott free ??